The Instigator
billsands
Pro (for)
The Contender
fauxlaw
Con (against)

bernie sanders is going to be our next president

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Debate Round Forfeited
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Time Remaining
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Voting Style: Open Point System: 7 Point
Started: 2/19/2020 Category: Politics
Updated: 1 year ago Status: Debating Period
Viewed: 258 times Debate No: 124069
Debate Rounds (3)
Comments (1)
Votes (0)

 

billsands

Pro

no one thought barry would win, BUT HE DID
fauxlaw

Con

The prediction of a future event depends on calculation of probability, Which is more complicated than just developing odds of an event occurring. I am a certified Six Sigma Black Belt, A declared expert in calculation of statistics. However, Even by using Las Vegas [American-style] odds, Trump"s favorability over Sanders is clear:

Currently, Vegas gives Sanders +400 to win the election.

Currently, Vegas gives Trump -175 to win the election.

Sanders odds mean that betting on him is 4:1 odds. That is, Betting $100 will yield a $400 payment.

Trump"s odds mean that betting on him is 1:1. 75 odds. That is, Betting $100 will yield a $175 payment.

A minus odds number is a surer bet, Meaning that it will yield a smaller reward for the same bet.

The source for the odds quoted here is https://www. Thelines. Com/odds/election/
Debate Round No. 1
billsands

Pro

Bernie is surging in the polls, So what does that do to your odds?
fauxlaw

Con

Why do you continue to post opinion, Unsupported by any citations? That's supposed to be the game, Here. Your opinion is fine, But, Unsupported by any citation of recognized credibility, Whom do we trust? Your sock puppet? Sorry; not credible.
According to the Vegas line, Today [2/22/2020] the odds are unchanged from what I quoted yesterday. Moreover, Today"s Washington Examiner [https://www. Washingtonexaminer. Com/news/bernie-sanders-leads-the-polls-but-democratic-party-superdelegates-won't-commit] reported the following: "Sen. Bernie Sanders, Who is narrowly leading a pack of Democrats seeking the presidential nomination, Lags in support among critical super delegates who have mostly remained on the sidelines rather than commit to Sanders or any other candidate thanks to the uncertainty of the race. Super delegates will play a pivotal role in deciding the party"s presidential nominee if the top candidate fails to win a majority of a separate set of delegates up for grabs in the primaries and caucuses now underway. The vast majority of super delegates remain undecided. "
Note that Sanders is "narrowly leading" the Democrat candidates. Narrow, At least in one view, Is not "surging, " as you claim. Again, Some citation from you is wanting.
While I"m at it, Let"s let in some sanity in political polls. Who are the typical targets of political polls? Registered voters. There were approx. 250M registered voters in 2016. Of them, 127M bothered to vote; about 51%, And their votes were split between two opposing candidates. That means 49%, About 123M, Did not vote, Expressing no opinion on the presidential race. Therefore, A current poll, Any poll, Will include a portion of the 49% crowd. And there, My friend, Is your majority crowd; the 123M who did not bother to vote. You want likely voters, Not just registered, But we will not know who they are for another six months. What does that do to the integrity of political polls? That"s why you see those polls with margins of error in excess of "3%; some in excess of "4%. Statistically speaking, That territory stinks. Remember, I am a Six Sigma Black Belt; a professional in these matters.
Debate Round No. 2
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Debate Round No. 3
1 comment has been posted on this debate.
Posted by ITakeMASSIVEDumps 1 year ago
ITakeMASSIVEDumps
Bernie winning shall be the most epic thing to grace the nation.
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